Thursday, September 13, 2012

NASA Tool Tracks Deforestation to Help Law Enforcement

All over the world, forests are disappearing as they are cut downto help fuel human development--ofteninplaces where no one is monitoring. Now a project using NASA satellites can help alert us to whenthedamage needs to bestopped.

It'sthe holy grail for those hunting illegal logging: a satellite tool to find deforestation anywhere in the worldaroundthe clock. Now they have it.

NASA researchersat Ameslaboratory in California teamed up with the environmental newsand watchdog site, Mongabay, to create the tool: the GlobalForest Disturbance Alert system. Every three months, the system compiles data from the entire Earths' surface for signsofforest lossdown to five square kilometers. Anyone can get this free, timely comprehensive look at the 50,000 square miles of forest lost eachyear.

"I'm hoping the tool can help journalists andactivists pinpoint areas where deforestation is occurring," says Rhett Butler, the founder and editor-in-chiefof Mongabay.

The program'sfirst pilot through Mongabay's Indonesianwebsite willrecruit local journalists to look for forest disturbance hotspots. About 50 freelancersare scheduled to help monitor deforestation across the Indonesian archipelago. Soon, text message alertswillbe added to alert anyone when forest cover ischanging somewhere in the world.

"We hope that this networkwill enable usto look into deforestationhotspots… to learn what isactually happening on the ground: Isthe deforestation legal? Is there social conflict?" says Butler. "We're excited about the potential this system has for improving transparency around land use."

Butler gave an interview by emailthismonth (editedfor length) describing what's next for monitoring the world'sdwindling forests.

Co.Exist: Why wasn't thisdone before? Wasit primarily technical challenges or something else?

Butler: That'swhat I asked too. I'm still not sure, but every year computing power gets better and cheaper, so that's probably one reason. There's also renewedinterest in forests as massive storesofcarbon. Thus, reducing deforestation isincreasingly seen as away to contribute to efforts to mitigate climate change.

Earlier this year, NASA reached out to me with an interesting product that had just been developed by the CASA ecosystem modeling team at NASA AmesResearch Center in Mountain View. Called the "Quarterly Indicator of Cover Change," the product used satellite data from the MODIS sensor to compare changesin forest vegetationindex imagesona globalscale. It seemed like a great opportunity to developa quarterly "deforestation" alert tool.

What are you tracking exactly?

[We]measures changesin vegetation cover on aquarterly basis. The tool was developed for Mongabay by researchers at NASA Ames. It only picksup large-scale change, like new plantations or clear-cutting, rather than smallholder activity (with a resolution of 5 KM).

We plan to rollout an alert system which would enable a user to subscribe for a regency, protected area, province, or the entire country, and then be alerted if deforestation is detected. We're also hoping to make the toolmonthly, rather than quarterly in the near future.

What hassurprised you so far about the results? Doesit match the "official" reports/statistics?

We're still testing thisout but so far the alerts are coming from areas I would expect, like northern Myanmar, Indonesian Borneo and New Guinea (e.g. near anarea where large-scale plantation development is occurring), Nigeria, and Papua New Guinea. These places are experiencing high rates of forest conversion. In many partsofthe world, there aren't any "official" deforestation estimates on a regular basis--the closest thing to that are the reportsput out by the FAO, which come every 5 years. So GloF-DAS can provide a clue on what's happening in the interim.

One thing that surprised me initially but now makessense, is the number of alerts coming from very cold regionslike the Himalayas, Patagonia, Alaska, Western and Eastern Canada, and Scandinavia. What the system isdetecting isretreat of winter ice and snow in forest areas. A similar thing occasionally happens on a smaller scale along meandering rivers, when river channels shift andislandsdisappear. That'swhy we ultimately called the tool a "forest disturbance" system rather than a "deforestation" system.

Have you (or anyone) been able to respondto specific deforestation reports form the tools or isit mainly a reporting device for now?

We were recently approached by an NGO that is looking into using the system to see whether itscorporate partners are abiding by an internal "zero deforestation" commitment. In Indonesia we now have a networkof a dozen correspondents across the archipelago who are starting to use the alerts to develop story ideas. We've also been contacted by officials in afew countries who say they are using the tool. Indonesia's Ministry of Forestry isone.

What impact would you ultimately like to see thistool have on deforestation in Indonesia and elsewhere?

I'd like to see landuse become more transparent. What's happening, who's doing it. That can inform debate on what'sthe best use ofresources.

What You See Is Not What You Get In "Mathematically Impossible" Shale Oil Reserve Data

The Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) new rule for oil and gas, companies to book reserves has opened a potential gateway to false valuations of shale assets.

1. The new unrecented SEC rule allows companies to book reserves as proved undeveloped, or PUD's, which must be developed within 5 years: the "5 year rule".

2. Contingent resources that would likely never be developed have been overvalued as PUDs giving an artificially inflated estimation of potential shale reserves, saving some companies from default. A company with underperforming assets in need of cash flow could conceivably book contingent resources as PUDs to access funding and cheat the system.

3. The above may explain the recent massive impairment charge at BHP Billiton (BHP) on its US shale assets. BHP bought assets from Chesapeake Energy and PetroHawk. In the case of the Fayetteville assets bought from Chesapeake, over 50% of the purchase price was written off as an impairment within a matter of mere months by BHP, claiming a drop in natural gas prices.

4. Clearly this is happening for 40% or more of booked reserves at some shale companies, including PetroHawk and Chesapeake, are actually PUD's which was previously never allowed.

5. In late 2011, 80% of the top 10,000 oil and gas companies were issued comment letters by the SEC for anomalies in their public filings. Only 16% could show with that their PUD's would be developed in 5 years. So 84% of the companies were not in compliance with the new SEC rule. Some companies were declaring PUD's that were described as "mathematically impossible".

6. According to company filings, the number of years shale companies would need to develop their PUD's is significantly more than 5 years.

According to the Oil and Gas Financial Journal:

DevonEnergy. 9.1 years
Range Resources. 11.8 years
Chesapeake Energy 13.1 years
Apache Corp. 15.1 years
W&T Offshore. 104.56 years

All of these companies are violating the 5 year rule.

7. PUD's account for nearly half of all reserves at companies like Chesapeake and PetroHawk. These are assets that according to company SEC filings would take almost 3 times longer than allowed to develop. It brings the entire scope of shale oil production estimates and company valuations into serious question.

8. As shale oil reserve data skews our collective vision for an energy secure America, the smart money says, "Don't bank on it."

Why? Because any oil company can lease cheap acreage, advertise it with hyperbole, drill a few wells, and then resell it at an enormous profit without proving the wells are economcally viable since the new SEC rules do not require 3rd party verification of reserves. In other words, smoke and mirrors.

9. What halpened in Q3 2012? A massive flood of asset sales and impairment charges. Who would sell an otherwise proven oil field that was producing cash? They wouldn't, they would continue operations and retain the asset. The only way some of these companies have been able to generate cash is through such pumped up and puffed up asset sales filled more with hot air than with oil.

Buyer beware. The writing is on the wall:

The Financial Times:   "sleight of hand" in shale company financials.

Bloomberg's headline January 2012:
"U.S. shale bubble inflates after near record prices for untested fields".

Don't Count on Saudi Arabia for Oil Exports Says Citigroup Analysis.

Bloomberg's Businessweek (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-04/saudi-arabia-may-become-oil-importer-by-2030-citigroup-says) printed a report titled "Saudi Petrochemicals – The End of the MagicPorridge Pot?"

Based on Citigroup's152 pages long analysis of various companies in Saudi Arabia and the discussion of future oil export possibilities. The report finds:

1. Oil production will be constant at 12.5 million barrels per day (Mb/d) as expected.

2. Saudi Arabia generates 50% of its electricity using natural gas and 50% using oil products. They are using their own natural gas and oil production to do this. Saudi Arabia consumes all the natural gas that it produces and the domestic production is insufficient for their needs.

3. SaudiArabia's peak load is approaching 50,000 megawatts (MW) 21,000 MW in 2000. They calculate a need of 120,000 MW of electricity in 2030. Aside from electricity they need water from desalination of seawater to support populaton growth.

4. The Saudi authorities have plans to use nuclear and solar energy. By 2050 they plan: Nuclear energy 54,000 MW, concentrated solar 25,000 MW, photovoltaics 16,000 MW and wind power 9,000 MW.

5. Citigroup's conclusion: Saudi Arabia will not be an oil exporter in 2030. Electricity generation will increase at approximately the same rate as is occurring currently and that there will be delays in establishment of alternative sources of electricity.

"Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer (11.1mbpd) & exporter (7.7mbpd). It also consumes 25% of its production. Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrialnations. Oil & its derivatives account for ~50% of Saudi's electricity production, used mostly (>50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by ~8%/yr. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030." Citigroup

6. Saudi Arabia's domestic consumption of oil is increasing - and this is occurring in all the oil exporting nations. Some contend that the volume of oil available for importation by the OECD nations in 2020 will thus contract by half compared to what was available in 2005.

IEA Report on Global Oil Stocks Shows Decline in Global Production - Have We Peaked?

The IEA's monthly Oil Report: global production down by 100,000 b/d in August to 90.8 million b/d. Tehran exports slightly higher last month to 1.1 million b/d. It also reports that global demand increased by 1.2 million b/d in the 2nd quarter. OECD crude stocks increased by only 10 million barrels in July,about half the normal level. Preliminary data suggests that these stocks declined by a counter-seasonal 24 million barrels in August. US crude stocks are running about 50 million barrels higher than normal for this time of year, while Europe is about 55 million barrels lower.

Monday, September 3, 2012

Earth Projects Blog Launches!

Earth Projects (@earth_projects on Twitter and http://facebook.com/earthprojects.dotinfo on fb) welcomes you to our new blogging site at http://earthprojectsblog.blogspot.com for learning about great projects happening on Earth, the Moon and Mars for greater global understanding, unity, sustainability and peace!

In The News...

While Curiosity roams around Mars increasing our understanding of the rocks there, NASA engineers are straining their brains to figure out how to sustain human life and the plant life we will need on the moon to colonize "New Down Under" in the (hopefully vacant) lunar lava tubes! They have planned a new version of the Lava Light™ using colored LEDs powered by a nuclear powered generator that will empower the plants to conduct photosynthesis.

Back here on Earth, we have a revolution of sorts brewing underground in the energy sector with peak oil. Inside industry oil experts, familiar with the oil reserve data of the top 50 producing countries and several others, are claiming that 2012 is the year we reached the inevitable peak of global oil production. That's the most serious problem we now face globally - by a long shot, if so.

On top of peak oil, oil faces potential additional supply constraints with Twitteratis murmuring and debating the murmurs of possible nuetron warfare against the already embargoed nation of Iran by Isreal, and the recent attack on Saudi's largest refinery that infected nearly 30,000 computer workstations.

While the malware attack was not very consequential, it shows the potential for cyber warfare to shut down oil flow. Cyber warfare is a growing concern and area of capability development for defence agencies around the world. The cyber arms race is on and is integrally connected with space defense according to one US military report.

Follow our Twitter feed (@earth_projects) to see the full details of all these reports or friend us on Facebook at http://facebook.com/earthprojects.dotinfo